News

Bye Bye Boston?

by Sue O'Connell
Thursday Apr 14, 2016

The journal Nature published a new study showing that by 2116 sea levels could rise six feet or more. That's the worst case scenario, if nothing is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gases trap radiation from the sun and warm the planet's surface, including oceans. The major greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2). Almost all CO2 comes from fossil fuels and land-use change.
The best case scenario? Every country abides by the The Paris Agreement (the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which deals with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance, starting in the year 2020), no further damage is done, and we'll have a sea level rise of about a foot-along with more frequent, huge hurricanes (worse than 2012's Hurricane Sandy).
Either way, most of Boston will be underwater.
Why? First, the entire Back Bay, the South End, half of South Boston, North Station, and Faneuil Hall are man-made with landfill.
Second, this new study has Antarctic ice loss projections. Sea levels do not rise uniformly. The Northeast and low-lying Boston have more to fear fear from a loss of ice in Antarctica than the same amount of loss in Greenland.
"It matters where the source of the water comes from. The big ice sheets affect the earth's gravity. Gravity means they affect sea level," Dr.Robert DeConto, a geoscientist at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, and one of the authors of the study, told me in an interview last week on "The Take with Sue O'Connell" on necn.
Basically, Boston is built on sinking landfill and the sea level is rising.
The new study, by DeConto and David Pollard, a geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University, adds data to older studies. It also adds new information about the loss of ice in Antarctica, which has direct impact on Boston.

DeConto told me that the findings are based on models they developed from studying ancient sea-level and temperature changes. Their new research shows that sea level rise could double the old prediction.

"The threat is greater and more immediate" DeConto said. "Bigger and badder and faster than a year ago,"

"Depending on which path we choose, we are going to see rates ten times faster than they are today. We now measure about an inch per decade. It's possible we could see sea level rise in feet per decade. When you think geo-engineering to hardening coastlines and protect cities, particularly for a city like Boston with so many low-lying areas would be a grand challenge," he said.

DeConto added, "The horse isn't out of the barn. The Paris Agreement is a good step in the right direction."

According to DeConto, discussion of how rising sea level will impact cities should be a top priority for cities like Boston

Lauren Zingarelli, spokesperson for Mayor Walsh said in an email that "the city has already been using guidelines that use scenarios of 4.2 to 6.8 feet of sea level rise, so the new data only reaffirms and reinforces our need to prepare for the impacts of climate change,"

Zingarelli explained that Boston has Climate Ready Boston, an initiative to develop resilient solutions to prepare Boston for the impacts of climate change. The new data from the report has already been folded into the Climate Ready plan.

She added, "The City of Boston is concerned about and planning for the impacts of climate change across all neighborhoods. The Environment Department works closely with the BRA on this issue, and Climate Ready Boston will help inform the work of Imagine Boston 2030, http://imagine.boston.gov."

To learn more about Climate Ready Boston, visit www.climateready.boston.gov/